Palatinate
I am not happy with the reduction to 55 %. I think it appropriate once the warranty funds falls below 200k. Plenty of defaults incoming though originating from Feb-Apr 2020 period.quota today @55,02 %, warranty funds 301.012.

Same here. Warranty fund is effectively money owned by Omaraha . It used to be around 200k. Now it has been boosted to 300k by reducing money paid to investors. I understand why Omaraha would want to keep more of OUR money, but don't see why WE should support it. I better donate to children hospital!

Petition to get waranty fund payout back to 60%, at least until waranty fund is above 200k!

Let's say there is a need at least in explanation, why it was decided to raise warranty fund from 200k to 300k.
Without an explanation owners would not get a trust and money will start floating away.

romanvas
Let's say there is a need at least in explanation, why it was decided to raise warranty fund from 200k to 300k.Without an explanation owners would not get a trust and money will start floating away.

Agree with Palatinate, kkkkk and romanvas!

I also agree an explanation is needed. Omaraha have done well so far in these troubled times but a bit more communication would not go amiss. Rising defaults are going to be a problem for some time.

Thanks guys. The level of my “red” loans keeps rising. Hard times. Warranty funds today 299.905.

gmaxkenny
I also agree an explanation is needed. Omaraha have done well so far in these troubled times but a bit more communication would not go amiss. Rising defaults are going to be a problem for some time.

Observing the history of the reserve ratio in this thread, I'd venture a guess the guys are running a dynamic reserving model a la insurance company, based at least on historic and recent default frequency and other features. These type of time series models have to take account of volatility clustering (high-risk periods clustering in time) so periods with high capital reserves (e.g. elevated margin requirements) need to last for a bit. See a chart of the VIX index as a reflection such volatility clustering (here: as measured by modern volatility models run by options market markers). So do not expect it to come down in a second, risk has an exponential decay rate…

I'm impressed by the way that a two-man self-funded shop managed to avoid losses during a crisis period like that, when “professional” lending firms contracted by the biggest players have generated drawdowns that will take 1-2 year's of profits to recover from…

Agree with Palatinate, kkkkk and romanvas!

warranty funds now at record highs around 312.000, while I still see more red loans/defaults incoming. With vaccinations at the horizon, I still think Omaraha should give Investors a bigger break and increase the compensation again to 60 %, or even go back to the legacy 60 % - 80 % floating range.

Palatinate
warranty funds now at record highs around 312.000, while I still see more red loans/defaults incoming. With vaccinations at the horizon, I still think Omaraha should give Investors a bigger break and increase the compensation again to 60 %, or even go back to the legacy 60 % - 80 % floating range.

Arne wrote about this 80% in Estonian forum. On this level there will be fund empty about after 3 months and then compensation level 30-40% max. And about vaccine… I don't think, that ordinary people will get it in Estonia before 5-6 months. Possible supply problems etc.

it will be a very ugly end of the year, with defaults rising at a very fast pace.